A developing surface low in the northwestern Gulf will track across southeast Louisiana and into coastal and southern Mississippi overnight tonight and tomorrow. This will bring widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms along with moderate to strong onshore flow. The surface low will push east of the area early Thursday evening and a cold front will quickly slide through overnight Thursday.
Multiple minor impacts are possible. A few strong to severe storms are possible. Locally heavy rain is possible and a marginal risk for excessive rainfall exists. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts are possible. High than normal tides are also expected. Tides will run about 0.5 to 1 foot above normal with tonight’s high tide and then could run as much as 1.5 feet above normal tomorrow afternoon and evening during Thursday’s high tide. A coastal flood advisory will likely be needed for tomorrow afternoon and evening. Although a coastal flood advisory may be issued, tides will not approach the levels we saw a few weeks ago associated with Michael.
First high tide will be this evening and overnight. Second high tide will occur tomorrow afternoon and evening. Showers should begin to move in overnight tonight with the best chance for thunderstorms just before sunrise across areas southwest of the I-10 corridor in LA. Storms will move east and northeast across the area through the day and should exit early Thursday evening if not earlier.
Confidence is high we will see widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms and have above normal tides. These tides should be no more than 1.5 feet above normal in isolated locations with most sites likely peaking out around 1 foot above normal. Confidence is low to medium for locally heavy rain. There is a chance that an area of storms develop near the coast and either stay along the coast or just offshore. If this occurs then the threat for locally heavy rain will be lower than expected. Confidence is low with respect to severe weather. If storms move along the coast anchoring the warm front along the coast then little if any strong to severe weather will occur across most of the area. If the warm front can move farther inland then a few storms could pose the potential of becoming strong to severe.