HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OUR FORECAST AREA
Here is the latest update on Tropical Storm Nate.
Strong, gusty easterly winds in coastal and offshore areas continue to yield higher than normal tides and minor coastal flooding through Saturday afternoon. Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings are in effect in for coastal Southeast Louisiana for points from Grand Isle, LA eastward as well as for all of the Mississippi coastal counties. A Tropical Storm Warning, Hurricane Watch, and Storm Surge Warning are in effect for coastal Louisiana west of Grand Isle, and for parishes in Louisiana surrounding Lake Pontchartrain.
Note that the Storm Surge Warning does not include areas within the hurricane risk reduction levee system. Farther inland, a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for Pearl River County, Washington Parish, and northern Tangipahoa Parish. Impacts associated with Tropical Storm Nate are expected to occur from Saturday evening through Sunday morning. These impacts include tropical storm conditions expected with hurricane conditions possible, storm surge inundation above ground potentially between 4 and 7 feet outside of the hurricane risk reduction system, rainfall of between 3 and 6 inches with the possibility of some locations seeing double that amount, and a few tornadoes.
CONFIDENCE: High confidence concerning winds and coastal flooding through Saturday morning. High confidence in potential tropical impacts from Saturday evening through Sunday morning.
Through Saturday Morning:
- Elevated Tides:
- Currently tides are running near 2 feet above normal along the shorelines of Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. Tides are running about 1 to 1.5 feet above normal along the Louisiana coastline and along portions of the Mississippi coast.
- Strong easterly winds over the Gulf of Mexico are expected to keep tides near current levels through this evening, then possibly higher dependent on tropical impacts this weekend. The elevated tides are expected to lead to nuisance flooding of low lying coastal roadways – especially on east-facing shores near the time of high tide.
- Gusty Winds:
- Winds will remain strong and gusty in coastal areas through this evening with speeds near 20 mph and occasionally higher gusts, though higher winds are possible this weekend dependent on tropical impacts.
Saturday Evening through Sunday Morning:
- Storm Surge: Maximum Storm surge inundation above ground of 4 to 7 feet along the open coastline, 3 to 5 feet around the shore of Lake Pontchartrain, and 1 to 3 feet around the shore of Lake Maurepas. Main impacts will occur outside of the federal hurricane risk reduction system.
- Wind: Sustained tropical storm force winds with hurricane conditions possible as Tropical Storm Nate makes landfall. The highest risk is generally from extreme Southeast Louisiana and across the Mississippi Coast.
- Rainfall: Rainfall of 3 to 6 inches could occur along and to the right of the storm center, with decreasing amounts to the west.
- Tornadoes: Isolated tornadoes may develop as Tropical Storm Nate approaches and makes landfall.